Commentaries

The current concerns over Greek sovereign finance are natural as investors continue to worry about the country's large-scale debt, compounded by several years of less than prudent or transparent fiscal management.

In this article, we look at how our themes are enabling us to manage risk in our clients' portfolios, with particular emphasis upon our more government and fire risks themes.

In this article, we consider the respective merits of absolute-return and relative-return approaches to investment following the turbulent events in financial markets in recent years.

Europe provides a number of opportunities in which to invest; and, with the European market being one of the cheapest in the world, now appears to be an excellent time to invest in some of Europe's best companies at compelling valuations.

In a week in which the UK's Scottish leader was almost politically 'knifed' by members of his own party, it seems appropriate to summarise the state of the gilt (UK government bond) market with a quotation from Macbeth.

Despite stark reminders during the final quarter of 2009 that the world is not yet ‘out of the woods' in relation to its post-credit-crisis challenges, measures of financial-market volatility fell to levels last seen before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 and investors' appetite for ‘risk' appeared to remain reasonably hearty.

The rationale for going into global fixed-income securities used to be founded upon the existence of a weak base currency. There are now many more reasons to invest in overseas fixed-income markets.

Index-linked gilts are receiving a lot of attention currently. In this article, we ask whether they are worth the paper they are written on.

The scale of government debt issuance is beginning to attract attention from the 'scribblers'. Should we worry about it? In some cases, yes; and in most cases we should be careful what we wish for.

The Newton Global Dynamic Bond strategy aims to maximise the total return (of income and capital growth) from a diverse range of bonds and currencies around the world.

At Newton, we use a well-established thematic investment approach to gain long-term perspective on global financial markets and economies. In this article, we review how our themes are evolving and we explain our introduction of a new theme called low-end spend.

A large number of European companies have strong balance sheets and pay generous dividends to shareholders; many European stocks now yield more than government bonds. Such companies hold the key to real income growth for savers.

The debate rumbles on about what type of economic recovery is likely to occur. Here we suggest that one size (shape) does not fit all.

The term 'emerging markets' is not obsolete; it just needs to be recalibrated. We believe there are highly attractive opportunities for bond and currency investment in emerging countries, particularly those with strong resources and improving political conditions.

By the third quarter of 2009, investors had recovered from the sense of disorientation and panic that had overwhelmed them previously. Asset prices, in sharp contrast with a year earlier, rose almost universally.

The US dollar's reserve-currency status is under threat, but is there an alternative? The largest holders of currency reserves, the Chinese, maybe pointing to a solution.

The debate about the merits of active and passive investment management has received much attention recently in the aftermath of the global credit crisis and in light of the failure of a number of active strategies to meet investors' requirements during that crisis.

The beauty contest between currencies may have another 'ugly' contender. At the start of the year, we thought that the big three currencies (dollar, yen and euro) would not perform well compared with 'risk' currencies in more flexible economies.

Recent economic optimism may prove as temporary as an inventory 'correction'. A couple of months of uncertainty could be on the cards as 'risk assets' have run ahead of the economic data. Reduced orders to rebuild depleted stocks may undermine the greenshoots brigade and support the government bond markets.

Market sentiment is shifting from perceptions of 'green shoots' to fears of Armageddon and back again. Conflicting data from a world economy finding a 'base' is likely to keep bond markets range-bound during the summer. Currency diversification, however, will represent a significant opportunity.

Equity markets posted strong gains and government bond markets weakened in the second quarter, but unease about the global economy kept equity gains and bond losses in check during the quarter's closing weeks.

There are tentative signs of economic recovery at the moment but, while all commentators would agree that the recovery is taking place from a very low base, many disagree about how long it will last.

A top-of-the-range car from GM or Chrysler may not be worth what it was and neither are those companies' bonds. GM has had to resort to drastic measures, including government ownership and debt destruction, to keep going.

Newton global bonds and currencies strategy: continue to diversify away from the big three 'ugly currencies' by increasing underweight exposure to the yen and the U.S. dollar.

China is acting in determined fashion to shore up the growth of its economy. In this article, we consider whether the country is mimicking the banking/debt mistakes of the West.

Unlike moviegoers, most investors enjoyed no Quantum of Solace during the final quarter of 2008 as, with the exception of government bonds, asset markets remained highly volatile.