With equity markets continuing to face volatile trading conditions, 2008 is likely to be remembered as a challenging year. However, we are confident that our relatively cautious stance will allow us to ride out the market turbulence.
The relatively long-standing problems in the US sub-prime mortgage market and the weakness in the US housing market have cast a shadow over the US economy. Some commentators even claim that the US has already entered into a recession. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has demonstrated both its concern over the state of the US economy and its determination to fight off a recession with its recent dramatic cuts in US interest rates (2.25% year-to-date).
While equities in general have delivered negative returns so far this year, some sectors look more appealing than others.
Fortunately, our thematic approach allowed us to position our Funds relatively well prior to the recent market downturn.
For example, Newton's theme of 'debt and credit', which is predicated on the idea that western consumers are over indebted, led us to have a lower equity weighting in western banks well before the turmoil in credit markets caused a significant sell-off in banks. Meanwhile, we also felt that some of the more cyclical areas of the market had become overvalued in 2007. Hence another cyclical position which is likely to help our performance is our underweight to mining stocks.
For example, Newton's theme of 'debt and credit', which is predicated on the idea that western consumers are over indebted, led us to have a lower equity weighting in western banks well before the turmoil in credit markets caused a significant sell-off in the sector.
Elsewhere, we have exposure to more defensive sectors such as utilities and tobacco, which are supported by stable cash-flows and dividends.
Selective stocks may have been oversold in the sell-off, creating buying opportunities for our Fund managers.
In a difficult global economic climate, good stock picking, underpinned by our thematic approach, will be the key in the year ahead. We will continue to invest in companies with strong cash flows and solid fundamentals.
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